Why polls and betting markets diverge
Polls measure asking-intention. Markets price what traders think will happen under first-past-the-post.
A voting-intention poll answers 'if there were an election tomorrow, who would you vote for?'. A most-seats market answers 'who do you think will win the most seats?'. Those are different questions.
Markets fold in seat geography, turnout guesses, and how much the crowd trusts the latest poll. They can look 'ahead' of polls when traders think a party is inefficiently spread, or 'behind' when a polling spike looks like noise.
ElectaMeter keeps both signals and lets you re-weight them. Poll Heavy follows the surveys. Market Heavy follows the prices. Balanced is 60% polls, 30% markets, 10% seats. None of those modes is a forecast of election day.
See also the methodology and other guides.
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