Guides
Short reads on how to interpret the index.
How house effects work
Why pollsters differ, and what ElectaMeter subtracts when you turn house effects on.
Why polls and betting markets diverge
Polls measure asking-intention. Markets price what traders think will happen under first-past-the-post.
How seat models differ from vote share
First-past-the-post turns a national percentage into 650 local races. That is why the Lib Dems can look small in polls and large in seats.
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