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    LAB

    Labour

    ElectaMeter composite score and detailed breakdown

    72
    ElectaMeter Score
    -1.5 this week
    Poll Average
    25.3%
    Quality-weighted poll average
    Betting Probability
    42.6%
    Implied probability from markets
    Seat Projection
    266
    Projected GB seats (model)

    About Labour

    The Labour Party is a centre-left party founded in 1900 with roots in the trade union movement. It won a landslide 412 seats at the July 2024 general election under Keir Starmer. After by-election losses and a collapse in the polls, Starmer resigned in June 2026. Andy Burnham was elected Labour leader on 17 July 2026 and appointed Prime Minister shortly afterwards. Labour remains the party of government, but its polling lead and projected majority are much narrower than in 2024.

    How ElectaMeter tracks Labour

    ElectaMeter's composite score for Labour captures the gap between residual incumbency — Electoral Calculus still projects Labour as the largest party — and a much tighter polling race with Reform UK. The seat component stays relatively high; polls and betting move with the campaign. The weighting toggle shows how that mix changes the score.

    Weekly poll change
    -1.5
    Score vs last snapshot
    +0
    from 72 on 2026-09-03
    Strongest region
    London
    36.7% modelled share

    Polling Trend

    16%21%26%31%36%Jul 2024Nov 2024Mar 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Aug 202625%

    Regional Performance

    0%10%20%30%40%LondonNorth EnglandMidlandsEnglandSouth EnglandScotlandWales

    Latest Polls

    PollsterDateLAB %Sample
    Find Out Now2 Sep 2026262,280
    YouGov1 Sep 2026232,244
    YouGov31 Aug 2026232,244
    More in Common31 Aug 2026262,522
    Opinium28 Aug 2026272,003
    Survation28 Aug 2026272,149
    Find Out Now26 Aug 2026222,295
    BMG Research26 Aug 2026271,579
    YouGov24 Aug 2026222,380
    Deltapoll24 Aug 2026302,022
    More in Common23 Aug 2026273,140
    Find Out Now19 Aug 2026232,287
    Survation18 Aug 2026262,013
    YouGov17 Aug 2026222,441
    Deltapoll17 Aug 2026292,017

    Preferred PM ratings

    • Andy Burnham · Opinium37%
    • Andy Burnham · Opinium38%
    • Andy Burnham · Find Out Now20%
    • Andy Burnham · Freshwater Strategy52%
    • Andy Burnham · Opinium40%
    • Andy Burnham · YouGov30%
    All ratings

    By-elections involving Labour

    • Makerfield (2026-06-18) — Labour
    • Gorton and Denton (2026-02-26) — Green
    • Runcorn and Helsby (2025-05-01) — Reform UK
    Compare LabourRegional mapBetting oddsReform UKConservativesLiberal DemocratsGreen Party

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