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    CON

    Conservative

    ElectaMeter composite score and detailed breakdown

    45
    ElectaMeter Score
    +1 this week
    Poll Average
    20%
    Quality-weighted poll average
    Betting Probability
    19.7%
    Implied probability from markets
    Seat Projection
    119
    Projected GB seats (model)

    About Conservative

    The Conservative and Unionist Party is the UK's oldest political party, traditionally positioned on the centre-right. After 14 years in government (2010–2024), the party suffered a historic defeat at the July 2024 election, winning just 121 seats — its worst result ever. The Conservatives are now the official opposition, navigating a leadership rebuild and a fundamental debate about the party's ideological direction in the face of competition from Reform UK on the right.

    How ElectaMeter tracks Conservative

    ElectaMeter tracks the Conservative position across polls, betting odds, and seat projections. The composite score reflects their current third-place standing in most metrics. Users can switch to the 'Seat Focused' weighting to see how Electoral Calculus models the Conservatives' path under different scenarios.

    Weekly poll change
    +1
    Score vs last snapshot
    +0
    from 45 on 2026-09-03
    Strongest region
    South England
    27.3% modelled share

    Polling Trend

    15%18%21%24%27%Jul 2024Nov 2024Mar 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Aug 202620%

    Regional Performance

    0%7%14%21%28%South EnglandEnglandMidlandsLondonNorth EnglandWalesScotland

    Latest Polls

    PollsterDateCON %Sample
    Find Out Now2 Sep 2026202,280
    YouGov1 Sep 2026202,244
    YouGov31 Aug 2026202,244
    More in Common31 Aug 2026232,522
    Opinium28 Aug 2026192,003
    Survation28 Aug 2026192,149
    Find Out Now26 Aug 2026202,295
    BMG Research26 Aug 2026181,579
    YouGov24 Aug 2026202,380
    Deltapoll24 Aug 2026202,022
    More in Common23 Aug 2026223,140
    Find Out Now19 Aug 2026182,287
    Survation18 Aug 2026182,013
    YouGov17 Aug 2026192,441
    Deltapoll17 Aug 2026212,017

    Preferred PM ratings

    • Kemi Badenoch · Opinium19%
    • Kemi Badenoch · Opinium18%
    • Kemi Badenoch · Find Out Now11%
    • Kemi Badenoch · Freshwater Strategy34%
    • Kemi Badenoch · Opinium18%
    • Kemi Badenoch · YouGov15%
    All ratings

    By-elections involving Conservative

    • Aberdeen South (2026-06-18) — Conservative
    Compare ConservativeRegional mapBetting oddsLabourReform UKLiberal DemocratsGreen Party

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