How seat models differ from vote share

First-past-the-post turns a national percentage into 650 local races. That is why the Lib Dems can look small in polls and large in seats.

National vote share is not a seat share. Under first-past-the-post, concentrated support wins constituencies; evenly spread support wastes votes.

ElectaMeter does not run its own constituency MRP. National seat totals come from Electoral Calculus. Regional vote shares are a model: national polls with geographic modifiers, plus Scotland and Wales nation polling where we can parse it.

The constituency search page colours named 2024 seats so each region adds up to those national totals. That colour is an allocation, not a prediction that Labour will hold Birmingham Yardley. Treat it as a map of the model, not a canvass.

See also the methodology and other guides.

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